Gaming the Next War?

(Image: From Clash of Arms Games)

Now the Bush the Younger is no longer president, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)has decided that Iran is attempting to build nuclear weapons afterall.  While our current administration and the EU-nuchs dither, speculation is high that Israel will launch a preemptive strike against Iran. 

The question is:  When?

Possibly before Christmas, according to this article in the UK Mail.  Victor Davis Hanson point out some political-historical peculiarities and is also convinced that such a move will most likely occur under Obama's watch, rather then a Republican successor, in this NRO article.

What would be the fallout of such an operation?

Clash of Arms Games latest product, Persian Incursion, explores the geo-strategic and operational dilemmas, such a strike would entail.

What can be learned from playing such a game?

Michael Peck discusses his lessons learned in his latest article in Wired.

A lot of my like-minded friends are also wargamers, so today's news generated the following comments:

I thought there was a good chance the Israelis would attack between Obama's election and inauguration, but it didn't happen. I think I'll be more circumspect in my predictions, but this article is interesting.

One quote that got my attention: "the source ruled out direct British support, adding: ‘Of course we are not in favour of Iran developing a bomb – but do we think they’d use it: no."
I'm not so sanguine on that point.

"the source ruled out direct British support"

Kind of easy to rule something out when your capabilities are pretty much zilch anyhow. That's like a football team with a weak armed quarterback ruling out the deep passing game.

Very nice commentary!  It occurs to me that one good side effect of an Israeli attack would be to solve our concerns with Iraq being weak and vulnerable to Iran. If the latter were crushed in a war, the problem would be solved! Win-win!
Ironically, as far as fallout goes (the diplomatic kind), while Israel is castigated publicly most countries will be going (whew, thanks for doing that...sorry we didn't have the stones to help.)

Yeah, to include all of the Gulf Arab states.