Who Are These Guys?

No one is quite sure who these Libyan rebels are:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_theenvoy/20110322/ts_yblog_theenvoy/who-are-the-libyan-rebels-u-s-tries-to-figure-out 

Not only are we unsure who the rebels are, but who's going to be leading the war effort after the US pulls out, or subordinates our forces to a foreign command.

One of my on-line friends sent us his thoughts on the Libyan Airstrike Issue.  I loved the title of his message:

HOPE IS NOT A COURSE OF ACTION

That's the phrase we liked to use at Joint Forces Staff College to describe creating and implementing a plan that was not well thought out.


It came to mind reading an article just now that reported that "France said on Monday it hoped the Libyan government would collapse from within." I think Obama is thinking the same thing, and thus is making a cardinal mistake in warfighting. I told a coworker yesterday that this is the first time I can remember in my entire life that I thought military action was a bad idea (I do tend to be a warmonger and I like seeing "fire go down range.").


My take on Libya is that Qa-daffy will try to slow roll the coalition, such as it is. There is already a food fight going on as to who will be in charge -- no one wants it. The Euros like having the U.S. in charge.


The U.S. does not want it, as Obama made crystal clear. The Turks, Greeks, Germans and others will block NATO from taking it. I won't bother to consider the Arab League. So, bottom line on the coalition of the unwilling is that no one wants to be too closely identified with it. Not a promising start.


Back to Qa-daffy, he sees all this. He also sees the Chinese and Russians calling for a cease fire. He sees that the Arab League was for the war before they were against it (I feel OK using a Kerry-ism since he was so vocal about intervening early on). Knowing that the coalition has feet of mud, Qa-daffy's new paramount challenge is two-fold:


1 - Avoid getting killed, either by a TLAM or a bullet from a disgruntled employee


2 - Avoid a land campaign to oust him


He is working the first by disappearing (as of a few days ago), dispersing his successors, taking a defensive posture, positioning human shields (like Nic Roberts of CNN, whatever he says) and avoiding any excuses for more airstrikes.


Work on the second overlaps. He really needs to avoid doing the things he no doubt would love to do, like taking Western hostages, terror attacks outside Libya, firing Scuds into Europe, chemical weapons, etc.  Fight clean against the rebels (and not the West) and give no excuses for any drastic action.

So, if he does those two things, all he has to do is maintain control over what he holds and maybe push carefully on the ground where he can.


Sooner or later the coalition will fizzle (I guess sooner). The rebels are poorly equipped, untrained, etc. Short of a significant push by outside countries to give the rebels some backbone, they will fail, sooner or later. Once the rebellion is over, so is the real danger to Qa-daffy.

Qa-daffy also must realize that the Europeans are unlikely to introduce combat troops without U.S. involvement. Obama will not introduce troops unless forced to do so (it would be political suicide for him to do so after his very vociferous claims to that effect). So, he could possibly overreach himself and go too far - that is the big variable, to my mind.  Additionally, he has reacted to attacks in the past by striking back via terrorism (he has the convenient patsy of al Qaeda to provide plausible deniability if he does). Still, if he is patient and careful, he will survive and we will look pathetic.


Oh, BTW, if he deployed/dispersed his chemical weapons and the U.S. decided to go in on the ground to stop him, can you imagine how Obama would look "repeating Bush's mistakes?" It would be hilarious (though very bad for us).

Another friend posted this response:

Rhetoric matters - POTUS has said that "Qadafi (sp?) must go." When you say the leader of a foreign nation must go and then start dropping bombs on his country you have committed to a policy of regime change and all that it entails. However, nothing we are doing suggests we are committed to a policy of regime change and all that it entails.



That makes things very simple for Mr. Qadafi - all he has to do is survive and still be in power when this thing ends and he can call it victory. All we will have proven is that yes we are quite capable of taking down the air defenses in a third world country.