Of Nukes and Men

 

The article Rolling the Iron Dice...

 

(Image by Zukazame)

 

 

...sparked a lengthy discussion about the situation in Korea between Comrade Karla and a couple of friends: 

 

Raises some interesting questions. My initial reaction would be an unqualified “no, he can’t” but then again this admin continues to surprise.  One thing I find interesting is this is the 2d or 3d article I’ve read that still thinks 2d ID is forward deployed.

 

Nightwatch is the first place I've seen that at least mentioned the possibility (remote, I'll grant) that NK could fire a Musudan into the Pacific and pop an airburst as the ultimate demonstration of capability. I don't consider it likely, even if they do have the capability, because then even China might freak out. Then again, I was reading that China clarified its rhetoric from the other day that sounded as if they were chastising NK; now they say they were chastising the U.S. for causing the current crisis. China is not a reliable partner right now, and even if they were, they do not control the Norks, only influence them. The un-Kim may be blackmailing them to provide further aid, not just trying to manipulate South Korea and the U.S.

BTW, this article has the usual statements that give me pause "surely no nuclear warhead small enough to fit on such a delivery vehicle" and "unlikely to be able to strike the U.S." -- I do not have sufficient faith in the IC to get such a crucial fact right. Their track record is poor and the stakes are too high to take chances.

The EMP threat is very real and very plausible. It's a grey enough area they might think they could do it without inviting nuclear retaliation. With the current preisdent, they might gamble he'd be over-cautious. I'd be concerned that he might be that, or over-aggressive, but who knows what the norks really think.

Of course, in a major war, the norks would likely only nuke Japan, Guam and South Korea in order to prevent reinforcing the peninsula. But, once again, we should not downplay the enemy's capabilities or trust our analysis of their intentions. The data is too sparse and the track record too spotty.

 

If ever there were a good case for pre-emption, this would be it. But since Bush used it, I’m sure it’s anathema to the administration (as is any other sensible foreign policy, it would seem). 

Did you see that interchange with the DOS rep and the reporter (probably not as the MSM ignores this stuff) asking why they were saying “all is well, go ahead and stay/visit S. Korea.”

The admin position seems to be “we’ve heard this before, it’s no big deal.” I hope that’s not actually how they are treating this, but since the President is too busy trying to turn the US into a North American version of the EU, it may well reflect reality.

 

I am not so sure - I think that was the case in 1994, but no longer. Now, the worst case with NK is war and preemption guarantees war. The real threat is their massive artillery collection pointed at Seoul. They already have the nukes, and I'm sure they'd use them. Long term the danger is proliferation, given that now even Obama, Kerry, Hagel and the rest of the "missile defense is bad" crowd have had thier come to Jesus moments. 

Our best bet is to remain firm, yield nothing, avoid provocation, and let the Norks collapse on their own. That will be ugly, but hopefully less so than a war.

(Image by Ramirez)

 

You point out the best course of action…but then there’s always the potential the Norks “go for it” when they realize that they are going down anyway.  End result is the same, I guess.

 

Exactly so. Given that, I prefer to go with the COA with at least a chance for a non destructive conclusion.

 

The entire discourse wasn't gloom & doom however, when the following Tweet from Tim Siedell showed up:

 

Just pass a law saying you can't have nukes unless you pass a background check. North Korea problem solved. 

 

Of course! Why didn’t I think of that?

 

Why indeed Comrade.

 

Meanwhile, The Diplomad has been quick to point out the ironies in his Nork Nukes and Obama post, along with warning that unfinished business in foreign policy is like Eating Pizza in Geneva.  (Hint:  Both are distasteful).

 

 

 

The wildcard in all this is China. 

 

 

What China's response will be if/when things deteriorate even more, remains to be seen.